Is Ron Paul Actually So Far Behind?

Tell me if this makes sense to you:

Ron Paul has pulled in about $33,384,686 in the last year or so in campaign contributions. The donations are still rolling in, even though, according to polls, hes far behind McCain.
McCain on the other hand, has pulled in slightly ahead of Paul in contributions, with a modest $37,036,094.

Now they are only 4 million dollars off, and Ron Paul has been known to pull in more than that in a single day.
Here is the thing that bother me so much. The average donation size is 89 dollars per donor to Dr. Paul. Do the math. Thats roughly 375108 donors. And of course there as FAR more supporters than those who just donate. So this leads me to believe that there are a SHIT load of people out there who support Ron Paul. So how is it he can be SO FAR behind an opponent who barley pulled in ahead of Paul in the donations? And considering Paul has a 100% disclosure rate of the fund and McCain doesn't, this baffles me.

I really got to thinking about this when I saw this video. Whats to keep people from rigging ballots? Whats to keep the media from keeping Ron Paul down? This has already been proven by all the major networks, even CNN especially in the last debate, where Ron Paul was given a total of about 5 minutes of talk time. CNN, one of the more "reputable and objective" news sources. Something doesn't seem right here. I have never been one to buy into crazy theories, but this really just doesn't add up. Is it just me, or does anyone else seem bothered by the fact that EVERYONE seems to want Paul, but none of the polls reflect that?
Heres my sources:
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/finance/2007/q1/ron-paul/
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/finance/candidates/john-mccain/
http://paulcash.slact.net/
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/summary.asp?id=N00005906&cycle=2008
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/summary.asp?id=N00006424
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914

ImaMonster says...

We need to scream and yell and let the media know we know this. I say boycott the news completely! Thats one way to let them know, but probably impossible. We just need to keep pulling the media up on this. Screw the media! Vote Ron Paul!

fissionchips says...

I see two basic roles of the government in a modern democratic capitalist society:
1. Create a regulatory and legal framework in which economic activity can happen.
2. Provide public goods like education and healthcare.

Paul's brand of libertarianism eliminates #2. If a majority of the electorate actually supports hacking off one arm of government, I can't see a bright future for the US.

MaxWilder says...

fission, the idea is that individuals can purchase an education and healthcare for themselves if the economy was allowed to flourish. No that I think we could just suddenly stop all government services, but with Paul at least we would stop digging ourselves deeper into global fiascos.

The problem I see with Ron Paul is that he is too connected to reality. Other politicians know they would not be able to negotiate their pork projects and other standard means of compromise on Capitol Hill, so they marginalize him. The public follows their lead.

As for financing, Ron Paul supporters are, on average, much more active than supporters for people like McCain. With that kind of support base, you'll end up with better donations, but not as many voters.

jonny says...

Donations are one thing, but if you don't have the campaign organization to spend it properly (which he's admitted), it doesn't do you much good. As for media coverage, well that's just one of many problems with an uninformed and uneducated electorate.

Arsenault - follow that math a little further. Let's assume roughly 400,000 donors, and 10 RP supporters for each donor. Now spread that across the U.S. - 4,400,000 RP supporters amongst 150,000,000 voters. Now do the polls make sense? That equals roughly 3%, which is basically in agreement with the polls (I think). For the record, I did not work that backwards. I basically came up with the assumption #s off the top of my head and foggy memory of how many legal voters there are in the country.

>> ^MaxWilder:
the idea is that individuals can purchase an education and healthcare for themselves if the economy was allowed to flourish.


Purchase an education and healthcare? That'll work for about 2 generations, at which point the entire economy will implode, because the vast majority of citizens will not be able to afford both and the few that could won't be able to find a worker that can count change, much less be competent enough to do any real work. Your economic success is intimately tied to the economic success of everyone else.

fissionchips says...

>> ^jonny:
... Your economic success is intimately tied to the economic success of everyone else.

This simple truth can't be repeated enough. It's the basis of economics dating back to Adam Smith, and why market fundamentalism (as in: 'the market will provide all') is a betrayal of centuries of economic development.

Arsenault185 says...

Ok you guys have it all wrong. I was really hoping to see more from the Sift than this....*exhales*

Ron Paul does not want to hack off an arm of the government. He is simply trying to get it back to the Constitution. Education is NOT a Federal affair. It is supposed to be handled at State level. For everything he want to get rid of at the Federal level, he wants to see go back to the Sate level, which is where it is supposed to be. Read your Constitution Gentlemen.


And johnny, as far as your math goes, i know plenty of Ron Paul supporters, not a single one of which donated. I didn't want to assume any numbers, because I was trying to stay objective, but here I go.

(400,000 x 10 is 4,000,000, not 4,400,000)

But lets run with 100 supporters for every donor.
100 x 400,000 = 40,000,000 Thats almost a third.
You can toss numbers around all day, but the big thing I was wanting to point out was that they have raised almost the same amount of money, so you would think they would be closer.

jonny says...

dude - feel free to question and challenge my assumptions, but don't ever question my math: 400,000 * (1 donator + 10 supporters) = 4.4 million. (sorry, that's the one thing I ever get touchy about.)

Point is - it doesn't matter how much he raised. If he doesn't have people that know how to spend it, the money is useless. I live in Louisiana, and over the past week, I saw dozens of Obama ads, and 1 Clinton ad. Now, go look at the Louisiana primary results. He crushed her. Part of that was conceding the state on the part of Hillary's campaign, but the take home message for future campaigns is not to ignore any part of the electorate. [edit] or to assume anything in an election. Large grassroots support ≠ elected.

jonny says...

>> ^arsenault185:
Ok you guys have it all wrong. I was really hoping to see more from the Sift than this.... exhales
Ron Paul does not want to hack off an arm of the government. He is simply trying to get it back to the Constitution. Education is NOT a Federal affair. It is supposed to be handled at State level. For everything he want to get rid of at the Federal level, he wants to see go back to the Sate level, which is where it is supposed to be. Read your Constitution Gentlemen.


I have read it, probably more times than you. And you know what? It doesn't say a single thing about educational standards. Don't hand me that catchall BS of the 9th and 10th amendments. This is a matter of interstate commerce, covered by the Article 1, Section 8. The education you provide in dumbfuckistan affects the economic security of everyone else. So, no, it is not a states rights issue. Education is a matter of interstate commerce. Ever hear of the interstate highway system? How about Medicare? Or wetlands protection? Or maybe NSF and NIH? Or Social Security (each one of Paul's bogeymen).

Bottom line - I don't give a fart in the wind what some "enlightened" folk came up with 220 years ago. Those slave owning geniuses came up with the 3/5 compromise. Does that sound like something we ought to enshrine? Screw that. We make laws as we see fit. That is the purpose of those documents so many people seem religiously bound to. WE the people. Everyone. Not some of us, or them, but ALL OF US, for ALL OF US. Not you and your neighbors. But every single human in the country. Especially those with whom you would least like to associate yourself.

Arsenault185 says...

>> ^jonny:
dude - feel free to question and challenge my assumptions, but don't ever question my math: 400,000 (1 donator + 10 supporters) = 4.4 million. (sorry, that's the one thing I ever get touchy about.)


Sorry, I didn't realize you were including the 1 donor.

Anyways, as far as the education goes, well i think the 10th amendment says it just fine. "It doesn't say a single thing about educational standards." Well then we both agree. Therefore the Fed. Gov. has no authority over it, which means... It goes to the State.

Anyways.. I'm not really sure why all the talk about education and interstate commerce kicked off.. I was just trying to point out that for as much support as he supposedly has, hes lagging extremely far behind in the poles. And I am bouncing this off of the fact that the media shows him HARDLY any attention at all, and am merely speculating that the results might be getting tampered with.

charliem says...

Ill post here what I posted in the video about the blank markers.

Looking at all these videos about the problems you guys have been having, the disparity between exit poll results and actual results, the fubar elec voting setup...and everything else that goes with it, from the outside...your all fucked.

Im in Australia, we vote with a pencil, and paper.
Its mandatory.

We walk into the nearest polling place, we mark our names off, walk into a booth with our ballets in toe, mark what we want, and slip it into the boxes, that are guarded by police.

Simple as that.

The votes take about a week to count, but at the end of the day, the votes are solid, secure, and I have confidence that when I put my ballot in the box, its actually counted.

Ive never heard of a single problem with the system we have, not a single one.

You guys have to band together, form comittees or somethin, you need to act as a community and DEMAND this shit is done right. DEMAND the removal of elec voting machines, and the reinstatement of paper ballots.

DEMAND correct oversight and security of the ballets, because as it stands now, if I were a US citizen, I would have absolutley no reason to want to go out and vote. I have zero confidence in a system that is so full of shit like this, and in a nation where its not even mandatory to vote, the end result will never be a true representation of the majority...ever.

Democracy is failing, and all you guys seem to do about it is watch videos and blog about it.

Someone needs to fucking act.

Democracy won't go out with a bang, it will disappear silently, to the sound of people eating their cheetohs, and tapping away at their blogs, full of frustration, anger....and sadly, inaction.

Arsenault185 says...

^ Don't think my friends that agree with me an I are just sitting here eating cheetos. Being stationed in South Korea at the moment its hard to "march down" anywhere, but letters are being written. The pencil and paper thing? Thats EXACTLY what we need.

jonny says...

oy - another drunken rant from jonny.

>> ^arsenault185:
Anyways, as far as the education goes, well i think the 10th amendment says it just fine. "It doesn't say a single thing about educational standards." Well then we both agree. Therefore the Fed. Gov. has no authority over it, which means... It goes to the State.


If the Constitution were that strictly interpreted, many of the things we take for granted would go away. The federal government uses the commerce clause in particular to authorize all sorts of good stuff ([edit] and bad stuff).

Anyways.. I'm not really sure why all the talk about education and interstate commerce kicked off.

Because I think Ron Paul is dangerous and because I was drunk.

I was just trying to point out that for as much support as he supposedly has, hes lagging extremely far behind in the poles. And I am bouncing this off of the fact that the media shows him HARDLY any attention at all, and am merely speculating that the results might be getting tampered with.

As far as the system being rigged to favor certain candidates, I think we agree. But the results don't really need to be tampered with. As long as the mainstream can marginalize him and his campaign is unable to get the message out, the only folks who will even consider voting for him are well-informed and deeply interested, something most voters are not. But don't get me started on the failure of democracy.

Krupo says...

>> ^J-Rova:
Since when is healthcare a public good? or education? granted, they are good for the public, but they are not, by any means, public goods.


Right then, next time you're shot we'll wait for you to pull out your credit card before we admit you to the emergency room.

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