Clinton with 53% of the vote in Indiana
And Obama with 55% in North Carolina

Though I'd much rather your prediction come true Uhoh.

Obama by 5% in IN and 10% in NC

First exit polls are out and show Clinton ahead in Indiana by 5% and Obama ahead in North Carolina by 12%. Of course, those aren't always accurate, but it's a first look. The final polling in Indiana showed Clinton up by 4% with 8% undecided, so it's really up for grabs.

I'm just hoping for a stroke of luck to put Obama over the top there so the media can finally shut their pieholes and start putting real pressure on Clinton's campaign and show it as the hopeless trudge it has really been. Unfortunately, I worry about the Limbaugh Repuglicans who are going to try and screw with the results in Indiana and vote for Clinton in an effort to drag the fight out and increase their chances in November. That really should be so incredibly illegal...

My prediction (as of last night) is Obama in NC +14, Hillary in Indiana +4.

Obama is the projected winner of NC, the larger of the two contests. Indiana is still up for grabs, but looks like it will go Hillary.

It's ridiculous when you look at the county map. She wins all the rural, backwater, boondock, low income, low education counties where people swallow up shit about Obama being a Muslim with a spoon. He wins all the cities where people have advanced degrees and actually know what's going on in the world.

So, honestly, we're going to let the dumbest Americans, who believe everything in "FW:FW:FW:FW:FW:OBama Hates America" e-mails and haven't the slightest understanding of economics, law, and international relations, decide the future for everyone else? IT'S INSANITY.

^elitist snob :-p

Truthfully tough I can't believe she's winning by such a large amount in Indiana, there are a few more urban areas that have yet to report, but its still a way larger gap than I'd have predicted. Supposedly the Limbaugh go vote for Hilldawg cause she'll be easier to beat, strategy isn't effective, but I'm thinking it is.

Hoping those NC numbers stick though.

Clinton's campaign is already spinning the NC results, saying it's a victory for them because they gained so much ground against Obama there and that by the end of the night people will see how close it really was. LOL.

Indiana is still missing some considerable urban areas so the gap there will narrow. Only 35% is counted so far.

And I find it so ridiculous that being "elitist" is a bad thing now. So, being intelligent, creative, and successful is a BAD THING? I guess it is when you're pandering to people who want to pretend they're not what they are.

Obama is +30 at 12% reporting. NC

Hillary is +10 at 50% reporting. IN

+9% at 52% in Indiana! DOWN, BITCH, DOWN! ;O

"The dynamic hasn't changed" according to NPR. The danger was that Obama would squeak by in NC and lose big in IN. That isn't going to happen, in fact he's going to win big in NC and Clinton will squeak by in IN. Obama will come out with more overall delegates from both states than Clinton and increase his lead over her.


Of course... the MSM won't report that. They'll keep playing up the fairytale about Clinton having a realistic chance of winning the nomination because it makes for ratings. Assholes screwing with our democracy.

McClinton +8% at +53%

hehehe

My prediction before PA was a close win in IN for Obama, blowout in NC.

Had you asked me this morning, I would've said Clinton by 7-9% in IN, and Obama in NC by 8-12%.

Right now, I'm biting my nails, because my pre-PA predictions are still possible.

Hills' down to +6% at 64%.

I'm biting my nails too... I would do anything to see Obama win IN tonight, even if it's by 1%. Let Shrillary freak and demand recounts etc. etc. and make herself unapologetically look like the self-serving politician she really is.

^ Me too. An Obama win by 1 vote would be a knockout. Hillary would concede before the week is out.

Well, maybe not, but I think Pelosi, Reid, Gore, Edwards, etc. would all endorse Obama, and a flood of supers would make her continuation moot.

Still +6 at 70%, but there are still heavily populated counties which haven't reported.

Hillary +4% at 71%

Gobama, Go!

While we're talking politics, check out http://www.gibill2008.org/index.html and sign the petition. This was added to the war funding bill today and I'm hoping Bush will have a shred of humanity and not veto it. Especially since I'm joining the military in about 2-3 months. It makes some amazing changes to the GI Bill and essentially makes it a REALLY GOOD reason to serve in the military.

OMG. Go! We can end this tonight. >.< PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE...

^dystopianfuturetoday:
Hillary +4% at 71%
Gobama, Go!

Anyone see Obama's speech? I'm sure we're just circle jerking at this point, but I thought it was great, I think he was speaking as the democratic presidential nominee, and it seemed very much on his message that has been so successful for him.

MSNBC changed the race from "Too Early to Call" to "Too Close to Call"

It's 48 to 52, 75% reporting, and still no results from Gary (Lake county).

^I think O is going to pull it off!

Guh, I hope so but its still 4% with 82% of precincts reporting.

Honestly though, I think if she wins by 4% or less, it's going to destroy her argument about being more electable, etc., and we'll see superdelegates start weighing in Obama's favor heavily starting tomorrow.

I think Hillary will wait till Lake county comes in, and if that's the case, I think if it turns the tide she just might drop out. *or so I hope*

Wow, she's only up by 40,000 votes. That's a slimmer margin than I assumed with a 4% lead.

Now it's especially troubling to think that Republicans were turning out to vote for Clinton in order to drag out the election.

The media narrative is shifting: Tim Russert talking about how Obama is connecting with the working-class!

That's a big victory right there, if the chatterboxes stop lambasting Obama, even if he loses.

Comment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)

Gobama! I was really hoping he would pull both states, but at least it's going to be close in Indiana, and he will win many more delegates overall today.

Clinton +4 @ 85% *yawn*

Come on Lake County!

Someone at the Indiana division of elections is sitting around laughing at the rest of the country, holding things up for his own sick pleasure. I have to go to sleep soon, come on! lol

OOOOH, Hillary just said "No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic party because we must win in November"

Read between the lines!

Lol @ chanting "count the votes!" ... iirc, it wouldn't make any difference now anyway if they counted Florida (I voted in Florida and I don't feel disenfranchised at all, I understand my state legislature failed us by breaking the rules and forcing us into this). And how many times do people have to be told that Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan so it's entirely unfair to award her that state.

Clinton speaking now. Is it me, or does Bill look particularly red in the face?

She's starting with "we've come from behind, we've broken the tide."

There have only been 3 polls for this primary out of dozens that ever showed Obama ahead, and those were all within the margin of error.

At least she's not declaring victory.

She is of course, continuing on what is a completely unbroken trend of not congratulating Obama for his wins.

Ooh, NPR reports Lake County is taking so long because of a large number (man on phone from Indiana said "three times", but didn't specify 3x what) of absentee and early voting ballots still being counted before they even get to the electronic ballots. Early voting was reported to heavily favor Obama today, if I'm not mistaken. Unfortunately, they say a final count could be coming as late as the early hours of the morning. Guh.

Gonna go watch House and get some sleep. I'll check back on this in about 7 or 8 hours *crossing fingers*

It's now a 2 point race at 91%!

Comment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)

Damn, that's a nailbiter- but at 91%, I think it's unlikely he would bridge a 2 point gap, unless the remaining 9 percent were all coming from a city area.

It's all coming from one huge county that is voting 3 to 1 Obama. There are only 20,000 votes that separate the two. It looks like Obama will take all today.

^ It's a city area, the Mayor of Gary, IN says there were 220,000 votes cast in Lake county, and that the Obama turnout was "overwhelming"

He's an Obama endorser, BTW.

Oh, and Hillary canceled her morning TV appearances.

Lake County, in particular Gary, might as wll be Chicago southside. Hold out hope.

Keith Olbermann: "Tim, did it just end tonight?"

Tim Russert: "We now know who the Democratic Nominee is going to be, and no one's going to dispute it."

Chris Matthews earlier answered the question with a simple "Yes".

Very, very good news.

Comment hidden because you are ignoring dag. (show it anyway)

Tim Russert is saying right now that she has to throw in the towel now. She has no chance.

♩ Ding-Dong the witch is dead. ♩

Edit: we're obviously watching the same show.

HAH! I felt compelled to check back after watching House and I'm glad I did. 2% TO GO! All the way!!!

kos has something amusing up about Gary, IN potentially being illegitimate, since they're reporting 85-95% voter turnout when normally they see ~22%.

Apparently CNN's talking heads think there's something rotten going on in Lake county.

kos says:

The question is whether this was legit. The way the vote is being released makes this stink to high hell.

If this was legit, that's some serious machine action at work. If it's not legit, that's some serious machine action at work.

"Mrs. Clinton's advisers acknowledged that the results of the primaries were far less than they had hoped, and said they were likely to face new pleas even from some of their own supporters for her to quit the race. They said they expected fund-raising to become even harder now; one adviser said the campaign was essentially broke, and several others refused to say whether Mrs. Clinton had lent the campaign money from her personal account to keep it afloat.

The advisers said they were dispirited over the loss in North Carolina, after her campaign -- working off a shoestring budget as spending outpaces fund-raising -- decided to allocate millions of dollars, some key operatives and full days of the candidate and her husband there."

Oh well, Clinton is going to take Indiana, but by something like 20,000 votes. Thanks Rush Limbaugh, I hope you get investigated for tampering with federal elections process and get locked up. Piece of shit.

Either way, that bodes terribly for Hillary and she really has nowhere to go from here but out of the race.

"Chuck Todd just ran through the math and calculated that Obama now leads Clinton in the "popular vote" by about 710,000 -- and by 200,000 (even) if the disputed primaries in Florida and Michigan are counted. He also leads by about 160 Democratic convention delegates, Todd said."

CNN called it for Clinton, a lead of 2%.

Clinton 51%, 637,389 votes
Obama 49%, 615,370 votes

99% precincts reporting.

None of this "a win is a win" bullshit, everyone's saying this is a loss, because she was expected to win, and win fairly big.

I think this is a big win for Obama, she barely took Indiana when from what I was seeing the more generous polls were giving it to her with 54% and Obama got North Carolina by a healthy margin when they were counting on it being slim or her possibly winning it. I was 2% off in Indiana, and 1% off in North Carolina which is just fine with me seeing as the voting went in a favorable direction as far as my predictions were concerned.

I think all eyes are going to be on Hillary now waiting to see if she drops out or if she fights to the bitter end. Supposedly she meets with a bunch of super delegates tomorrow, me thinks she is gonna have a hard time convincing them she is the candidate of choice, even with her magic math its going to be hard for her to kick up the illusion she is some how really in the lead. The best thing her campaign can hope for now is Scooby Doo and the gang to come along, pull a mask off Obama, and reveal he's really old man Osama who'd have gotten away with it if it weren't for those meddling kids.

I really hope someone on her campaign says enough is enough with the pretending we're winning strategy.

Just because the media makes up some B.S. story about expectations doesn't mean anything. Look, IN was only 4-5pts for Clinton for many months.. See here: http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

And in NC, guess what? exactly the same thing for Obama. He did do slightly better with 14 pts compared to trends, but also many people expected 20pts or more. http://www.pollster.com/08-NC-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

So don't fall for artificial expectations that are only there for the media to frame up a story to sell.

It's not really a big win for Obama. These numbers were predicted by BOTH camps for the last few months. I can point to the Obama projections from two months ago that have exactly this. So, in reality nothing has changed. If anything Clinton couldn't ever really win from the remaining primaries, she is totally dependent upon supers. On the otherhand Obama could have won outright, but failed. If he won IN or did much better in NC, it would be over. He fell short and now has to keep up the dirty drag down cagematch brawl.

^Wha? A big win is not a big win if it resembles pre-election polling trends?

That would be some kooky spin, even if it were true. But...

Obama beat expectations by nearly double, beating the spread by 6.7 points. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html.

Hillary's expectations were cut in half, coming up 3.6 points short. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html.

Hillary cannot forestall her bitter tears forever.

^ I'm on the fence between these two arguments.

I'll admit, my post includes a bit of kool-aid drinking with regard to a "big win" meaning "did better than expected".

I'll admit, that's an utterly false metric.

I'll also agree with dft that IF beating media expectations should result in real action, this was a good night for Obama. He beat expectations, because the way it's ended up working is what the expectations are about 10 seconds before the polls close. The media has no long-term memory.

That's why it's an utterly false metric.

However, those were also real votes being cast. Popular vote swings by about 200k back to Obama, which nearly wipes out PA. Real delegates also changed hands, and that did wipe out the result in PA.

Obama's still in the lead by every metric even loosely supported by DNC rules. He's very likely to come away with the lead in both pledged delegates and popular vote.

Hillary now needs a 66% share of the uncommitted superdelegates.

Since February 5, Obama has netted 107 superdelegates, and Clinton only 21. Since the Pennsylvania primary, much of it during the challenging Rev. Wright period, Obama netted 24 and Clinton 17.

Hillary's only chance rests on Obama's political assassination.

I think the best thing for her to do is turn into a Democratic version of Mike Huckabee -- stay as long as she likes, but have nothing but good things to say about her opponent, and talk about what she has to offer as a candidate. Don't inflate, conflate or smear, just make a genuine appeal to people on her merits.

She could've won me over early if she'd done that from the beginning.

>> ^dystopianfuturetoday:
^Wha? A big win is not a big win if it resembles pre-election polling trends?
That would be some kooky spin, even if it were true. But...
Obama beat expectations by nearly double, beating the spread by 6.7 points.
Hillary's expectations were cut in half, coming up 3.6 points short.


Ok, so I said the election margins where pretty much what was expected from pre-election polling. And I'm saying that beating expectations is a stupid concept and the media is playing games. Sure a big win is a big win. But beating some CNN forecast or not meeting it is not a big anything.

Then you go on to tlak about double and half... half of what?? My blog predicted Hillary would get 100% of the vote in IN, instead she only got 1/50th of the expected spread.

(see it means absolutely nothing)

My blog predicted Hillary would get 100% of the vote in IN, instead she only got 1/50th of the expected spread.
(see it means absolutely nothing)


LOL, I wish She had only picked up 1/50th of the vote in Indiana. That would've meant an Obama landslide with 98% of the vote!

Better late than never:

*quality

Awarding uhohzombies with one star point for this contribution to Sift Talk - declared quality by NetRunner.